Peach Bowl: #9 Ole Miss vs. #6 TCU (at Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia)
One of these teams will be wanting to make a statement to the committee by saying they should have been the fourth team and had a shot at the national championship (TCU) while the other (Ole Miss) will be looking to cap off its first 10 win season since 2003. The Rebels bring with them a defense that ranked tops in the country in points per game allowed at 13.8 points per game as well as a senior QB in Bo Wallace who will want to cap off his college career with a win. The Horned Frogs bring junior QB Trevone Boykin who had an outstanding season as a dual threat QB as well as a stout defense of their own which ranked 17th in terms of points per game allowed at 20.2; 61 one of those coming in that gut punching 61-58 loss to Baylor. Boykin will want to keep the ball away from the side of Ole Miss corner Senquez Golson, who has picked off nine passes this season. When you've got two good defenses, I tend to lean towards the team that has more ways to beat you offensively and the QB you have more faith in. Both are TCU.
My Call: TCU 27, Ole Miss 21
Fiesta Bowl: #20 Boise State vs. #10 Arizona (at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona)
Thinking this will turn out to be a fun game, perhaps more fun than a lot of people would think when seeing the names of the two teams playing one another. Boise State brings with them one of the best running backs in the country in Jay Ajayi, who has declared for the 2015 NFL Draft. He has sorta gotten lost in the shuffle amongst the likes of Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Ameer Abdullah and the like, but it's hard to overlook rushing for 1689 yards and 25 TDs and catching 40 passes and 4 TD receptions. A true do-it-all back. Arizona has a very nice running back in their own right with true freshman Nick Wilson, who took over for Ka'Deem Carey and his enormous production. Wilson rushed for a touch under 1300 yards and 15 scores in his first college season. Kid will only get better also, which is a scary thought for the college football world. I'll take the Wildcats in what I expect will be a very close game because I think they're a bit more talented and they could have a bit of a homefield advantage, playing just a couple hours outside of Tucson.
My Call: Arizona 31, Boise State 28
Orange Bowl: #12 Georgia Tech vs. #7 Mississippi State (at Sun Life Stadium in Miami, Florida)
Yellow Jackets head coach came to Georgia Tech via Navy, so you figure he's a guy who will sink or swim with that triple option offense. Well, that's been exactly the case as his Jackets rank third in the FBS in terms of yards per game, averaging close to 334 yards per game. Although they don't have a highly ranked passing game and QB Justin Thomas has completed just 50 percent of his passes, he has thrown for 17 TDs compared to just five interceptions, so his ratios aren't bad at all. The Georgia Tech defense will have to account for Dak Prescott. The junior QB took a big step forward this season, throwing for 24 TD passes and nearly 3000 yards (as compared to 10 TD passes and nearly 2000 passing yards a season ago). Gotta worry about him as a rusher; his size/speed combo got him 939 yards and 13 TD scores on the season. Difference between the teams in my mind is two things, the Bulldogs can beat defenses both running and throwing and they have a couple NFL caliber players on defense in Preston Smith and a personal favorite of mine, linebacker Benardrick McKinney. I fully expect that kid to be a stud NFL linebacker.
My Call: Mississippi State 34, Georgia Tech 28
Cotton Bowl: #8 Michigan State vs. #5 Baylor (at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas)
Excellent Sparty defense will try and slow the nation's top scoring attack led by QB Bryce Petty. I fully expect this to be a very exciting Cotton Bowl with both offenses being at the forefront. Michigan State QB Connor Cook is an excellent QB in his own right and he's got Tony Lippett to sling it to and Jeremy Langford to hand it off to. On defense, both teams are led by outstanding defensive lineman. Shilique Calhoun creates all the havoc up front for the Spartans while Shawn Oakman of Baylor has been one of the major breakouts this year in college football, recording 10 sacks and 18.5 TFL becoming a possible first day pick for the 2015 NFL Draft. At the end of the day, I think a high scoring game as well as the venue favors Baylor. Arlington is just a little over an hour and a half outside of Waco, so Baylor should bring a very big crowd. I'm taking the Bears to outscore the Spartans by a few.
My Call: Baylor 42, Michigan State 38
Rose Bowl: #3 Florida State vs. #2 Oregon (at Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California)
Just how long can FSU continue to win close games? That question will be put to the test here as the Noles will be facing their toughest test of the season all the way across the country in Pasadena. They've been able to get past teams like Oklahoma State, Clemson, Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami, Florida, Boston College and Georgia Tech, but none of those teams is on Oregon's level. The Ducks high flying offense is led by Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariotta, who has racked up quite a stat line this season. 38 TD passes to just two interceptions to go along with 14 touchdown runs. My guess is this game may well bring out the best in Florida State QB Jameis Winston, who hasn't had a wonderful 2014 on or off the field, but was outstanding in leading FSU to the national title a year ago and winning the 2013 Heisman award. To me, the key to beating Oregon is to bring the fight to them. Be physical. That's what Arizona did in the first meeting with Oregon this season, winning 31-24 at Autzen Stadium and what Stanford did an excellent job of in year's past. Will FSU do the same and make it 30 straight victories? Not quite. They'll have the lead late, but Marcus Mariotta will lead the Ducks down the field and to the title game.
My Call: Oregon 38, Florida State 35
Sugar Bowl: #4 Ohio State vs. #1 Alabama (at Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana)
Interesting trek has been taken to this game by both teams. Alabama lost to Ole Miss early in October and followed that up with a 14-13 win in Fayetteville over Arkansas. They had another close call in Baton Rouge, beating LSU 20-13 in overtime. They seemed to take off after the LSU game and got the playoff's number one overall seed. Ohio State's journey began with a season ending injury to Braxton Miller before the season even began and their dreams of being a title contender seemed to go up in smoke with a home loss to a mediocre Virginia Tech team. However, they've rattled off 11 straight wins afterwards, including the 59-0 clobbering of Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game. They did lose J.T. Barrett to a fractured ankle in the win over Michigan, so now they are on their third QB of the season in sophomore Cardale Jones. He wasn't fazed by the conference title game stage, throwing for 257 yards and three TD passes on just 17 attempts. Going against Alabama will be a different type of test, not just for Jones but also the Buckeye defense which was great against the Badgers. They'll have to figure out a way to slow down the top WR in college football in Amari Cooper as well as an always strong rushing attack. It's been a very admirable run for the Buckeyes to even get to the College Football Playoff given all the adversity they have gone through this season; and as an Auburn fan, as much as I'd love to see that admirable run continue with a win in this game, I just have a hard time thinking it'll happen. Ohio State will put forth a very respectable effort and make it a closer game than some expect, but the Tide just seem to have too much firepower on both sides of the ball to come away with the win.
My Call: Alabama 34, Ohio State 27
College Football Championship Game: Oregon vs. Ohio State (at AT&T Stadium in Arlington)
Monday, December 29, 2014
Auburn Preview and Prediction (Outback Bowl vs. Wisconsin)
Well... 2014 didn't end up fulfilling the high expectations of the Auburn Tigers community (team and fans), but like every other team in a bowl game that also had higher expectations (and there are a few others), these Tigers have to do their best to finish the season strong and attempt to gain some momentum for the 2015 campaign. The last game of 2014, or maybe I should say the first game of 2015, will come on New Year's Day at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida (home of the NFL's Tampa Bay Buccaneers) against the Wisconsin Badgers of the Big 10 Conference. Both of these teams have felt personnel losses prior to this game and have key players who will or perhaps will be playing in their last collegiate football games. For Wisconsin, they lost head coach Gary Andersen in what was somewhat of a surprise move to me. He decided two years in Madison were enough and agreed to become the new head coach of the Oregon State Beavers, who lost their own head coach in Mike Riley to Nebraska, but may well have inherited an upgrade in Andersen. With that news, former long time Badgers coach and current athletic director Barry Alvarez will coach the team in the bowl game. Auburn had to deal with the loss of defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson due to ineffectiveness. His final swan song came in the Iron Bowl against Alabama where Auburn gave up 55 points in defeat and looked as though they flat out quit towards the end of the game. Both clubs have already hired their replacements. After the bowl game, Paul Chryst will be the new Wisconsin head coach. The Madison, Wisconsin native and former University of Wisconsin grad and player coached for three years at Pittsburgh before this opening, and he decided coming home was too good of an opportunity to pass up. He was also their offensive coordinator from 2005-2011; that included the last year of Barry Alvarez's long time tenure as head coach and all but one year of the Bret Bielema (who now coaches at Arkansas) era. Meantime, Auburn hired Will Muschamp to be their new defensive coordinator. Muschamp was fired by the Florida Gators after four up and down years as their head coach. Like Chryst had time at Wisconsin, Muschamp also has a past history at Auburn. Muschamp was the DBs coach and defensive coordinator at Auburn in 2006 and 2007, so both men will be back in familiar territory. Like Chryst, Muschamp won't be coaching in this game, either. Instead it'll be Charlie Harbison serving as the defensive coordinator on game day.
When dealing with the Wisconsin offense, the first and easier said than done key is to try containing star running back Melvin Gordon, who will be playing in his final college game as he recently declared for the 2015 NFL Draft. In his final season at Wisconsin, Gordon has thus far rushed for an astonishing 2336 yards and 26 touchdowns on 309 carries and has added 151 yards on 17 receptions and three scores through the air. It tells you although he may not catch the ball a ton, he is certainly capable of sneaking out of the backfield and hurting defenses that way as well. With the exception of the Western Illinois and Ohio State games, Gordon has rushed for at least 122 yards and one touchdown in all of Wisconsin's games this season. Yes, Gordon is the main guy and will get the bulk of the work, but Auburn can't forget about Corey Clement, who rushed for 844 yards and 9 touchdowns on 132 carries (added 10 receptions and 1 TD catch as well), so you've got another guy who is fully capable of doing some damage. Led by these two, it's predictable enough that the Badgers would have the fourth ranked rushing attack in the FBS, going for an average of over 300 yards per game. They've needed all of that with a less than stellar passing game, which ranks 118th in FBS in terms of yards per game at just over 150. Neither Joel Stave nor Tanner McEvoy have been very effective as passers, throwing for under 2000 yards and the same number of interceptions as touchdowns (13). McEvoy has been quite effective as a runner though, as he's ran for 574 yards and six touchdowns on the season. Speaking of McEvoy, he may see work on both sides of the ball in this game as he's been practicing on the first team defense at linebacker and safety, two positions he played while at Arizona Western College.. although he's spent all of 2014 at QB after spending 2013 on the defensive side of the ball.
Wisconsin makes it very tough on opposing offenses. They are 17th in the FBS in rush yards allowed per game and fifth in passing yards allowed per game in the FBS. 11 fumble recoveries and 36 sacks on opposing QB are two more solid totals. The only thing the Badgers defense doesn't really do much is pick off too many passes; they have just six on the season. Obviously with 36 sacks, this team is very good at tackles for loss in the backfield. With two seniors, a junior and a redshirt sophomore, this is a very experienced group of linebackers. True senior Derek Landisch is the best of the bunch production wise; as he has recorded 9 sacks and 16 tackles for loss. Vince Biegel isn't too far behind with 7.5 sacks and 15.5 TFL. Safety Michael Caputo is the leading tackler on the team with 99 in total. I guess if you want any "good" news to consider, it's that none of these guys are what I'd consider individually dominant (at least not going by stats, but I haven't watched too much of Wisconsin this year, so maybe one or two of these guys has more of an impact than the stats may show), although that leads you to know this is an outstanding unit as a whole. As far as the season went, the Badgers began the season with a loss to SEC foe LSU before following that up with relatively easy home wins over Western Illinois, Bowling Green and South Florida. They then lost on the road to Northwestern to open up the Big 10 slate before running off seven straight conference wins over Illinois, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota before being run off the field by Ohio State 59-0 in the conference title game.
All in all, I think we've got a nice little matchup that should see a lot of back and forth. I think this Wisconsin defense will be able to go toe-to-toe with this Auburn offense, it should be interesting to see if Auburn's 12th ranked rushing attack can make it work against this stout run defense. Star running back Melvin Gordon will likely find some room to roam against an Auburn run defense that wasn't as good later in the season as it was earlier in the season. But one thing the Tigers should do is stack the box and force whoever the Badgers QB will be to beat them with his arm. I'm gonna take Auburn by a field goal. I have a lot of respect for this Wisconsin team, especially for Gordon and their stout all-around defense, but the Auburn offense has more proven ways to be successful than the Badgers, who will basically sink or swim (very likely swim) with Gordon. Auburn's defense ought to be able to do just enough to help the Tigers get out of Tampa with a win.
My Call: Auburn 27, Wisconsin 24
When dealing with the Wisconsin offense, the first and easier said than done key is to try containing star running back Melvin Gordon, who will be playing in his final college game as he recently declared for the 2015 NFL Draft. In his final season at Wisconsin, Gordon has thus far rushed for an astonishing 2336 yards and 26 touchdowns on 309 carries and has added 151 yards on 17 receptions and three scores through the air. It tells you although he may not catch the ball a ton, he is certainly capable of sneaking out of the backfield and hurting defenses that way as well. With the exception of the Western Illinois and Ohio State games, Gordon has rushed for at least 122 yards and one touchdown in all of Wisconsin's games this season. Yes, Gordon is the main guy and will get the bulk of the work, but Auburn can't forget about Corey Clement, who rushed for 844 yards and 9 touchdowns on 132 carries (added 10 receptions and 1 TD catch as well), so you've got another guy who is fully capable of doing some damage. Led by these two, it's predictable enough that the Badgers would have the fourth ranked rushing attack in the FBS, going for an average of over 300 yards per game. They've needed all of that with a less than stellar passing game, which ranks 118th in FBS in terms of yards per game at just over 150. Neither Joel Stave nor Tanner McEvoy have been very effective as passers, throwing for under 2000 yards and the same number of interceptions as touchdowns (13). McEvoy has been quite effective as a runner though, as he's ran for 574 yards and six touchdowns on the season. Speaking of McEvoy, he may see work on both sides of the ball in this game as he's been practicing on the first team defense at linebacker and safety, two positions he played while at Arizona Western College.. although he's spent all of 2014 at QB after spending 2013 on the defensive side of the ball.
Wisconsin makes it very tough on opposing offenses. They are 17th in the FBS in rush yards allowed per game and fifth in passing yards allowed per game in the FBS. 11 fumble recoveries and 36 sacks on opposing QB are two more solid totals. The only thing the Badgers defense doesn't really do much is pick off too many passes; they have just six on the season. Obviously with 36 sacks, this team is very good at tackles for loss in the backfield. With two seniors, a junior and a redshirt sophomore, this is a very experienced group of linebackers. True senior Derek Landisch is the best of the bunch production wise; as he has recorded 9 sacks and 16 tackles for loss. Vince Biegel isn't too far behind with 7.5 sacks and 15.5 TFL. Safety Michael Caputo is the leading tackler on the team with 99 in total. I guess if you want any "good" news to consider, it's that none of these guys are what I'd consider individually dominant (at least not going by stats, but I haven't watched too much of Wisconsin this year, so maybe one or two of these guys has more of an impact than the stats may show), although that leads you to know this is an outstanding unit as a whole. As far as the season went, the Badgers began the season with a loss to SEC foe LSU before following that up with relatively easy home wins over Western Illinois, Bowling Green and South Florida. They then lost on the road to Northwestern to open up the Big 10 slate before running off seven straight conference wins over Illinois, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota before being run off the field by Ohio State 59-0 in the conference title game.
All in all, I think we've got a nice little matchup that should see a lot of back and forth. I think this Wisconsin defense will be able to go toe-to-toe with this Auburn offense, it should be interesting to see if Auburn's 12th ranked rushing attack can make it work against this stout run defense. Star running back Melvin Gordon will likely find some room to roam against an Auburn run defense that wasn't as good later in the season as it was earlier in the season. But one thing the Tigers should do is stack the box and force whoever the Badgers QB will be to beat them with his arm. I'm gonna take Auburn by a field goal. I have a lot of respect for this Wisconsin team, especially for Gordon and their stout all-around defense, but the Auburn offense has more proven ways to be successful than the Badgers, who will basically sink or swim (very likely swim) with Gordon. Auburn's defense ought to be able to do just enough to help the Tigers get out of Tampa with a win.
My Call: Auburn 27, Wisconsin 24
Thursday, December 18, 2014
Non-Playoff Bowl Game Predictions (sans Outback Bowl)
The playoff bowl games will also include the four bowl games which are not one of the two semifinal games. This season, the two semifinal bowl games are the Rose and Sugar Bowls. The other bowls part of the college football playoff (or at least selected by the playoff committee) are the Fiesta, Orange, Cotton and Peach Bowls. The rest of them will be predicted right here, other than the Outback Bowl since Auburn is a part of that one. We enter bowl season with a 342-130 record following an 11-4 final regular season week. Having done pretty well throughout the regular season, we're hoping to carry that momentum into bowl season.
New Orleans Bowl: Nevada vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (at Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana)
Did a little bit of research and I think these two teams are very similar. Both are offenses that will rely on the run game for most of the production and are about dead even in terms of passing, points scored and points allowed per game. Almost scary if you ask me. Louisiana-Lafayette should have somewhat of a "homefield advantage" given that New Orleans is just a two hour drive for the Cajuns. But I like Nevada in a tight one since they play in the better conference and have shown pretty darn well in their tougher matchups this season. They lost to Fiesta Bowl participants Arizona and Boise State by a combined 12 points. The Rajun Cajuns, on the other hand, generally got blown out by the best non-Sun Belt teams they fared against in Louisiana Tech and Boise State.
My Call: Nevada 33, Louisiana-Lafayette 30
New Mexico Bowl: Utah State vs. UTEP (at University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico)
Unlike in the New Orleans Bowl, what I think we have here is a game between two games that are not very much alike at all. UTEP ranks 120th in the country in terms of passing yards per game, is 70th in the country in points per game scored and 82nd in points allowed. What saves them is a run game led by El Paso's own Aaron Jones' 1233 yards and 11 TDs ranked 34th in the nation. Utah State has a very average offensive team in general, ranking middle of the pack when it comes to rushing and 84th in passing yards per game. What saves these guys is their defense which ranks 21st in the country, allowing just under 21 per game. This seems like a bad matchup for the Miners. They're going up against a rush defense which ranks 26th in the FBS, so you know the Aggies will commit to stopping the run and force a UTEP pass game which has shown next to nothing all year long to beat them. Utah State is gullible through the air, ranking just 76th in terms of yards allowed per game, but UTEP doesn't seem like the type of team who will take advantage. Aggies by a couple scores.
My Call: Utah State 31, UTEP 20
Las Vegas Bowl: Colorado State vs. #22 Utah (at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada)
Colorado State will have to make do without coach Jim McElwain, who is now the head coach of the Florida Gators. That said though, I still think they're the better, more balanced team in this game. Both have strong run games, but the Rams have a legit NFL prospect under center in QB Garrett Grayson. When Dee Hart isn't being handed the ball, Grayson will air it out to receiver Rashard Higgins, who was second in receiving yards in the country only to Amari Cooper. Utah will try countering this with Nate Orchard, who registered 17.5 sacks (good for second in the country) and 20 tackles for loss.
My Call: Colorado State 29, Utah 27
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan vs. Air Force (at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho)
Albertsons Stadium... seriously, Boise State? Way to sell out to the corporate sponsor there, guys. Anyway, looking at the numbers of these two teams, I love that Western Michigan is very balanced offensively. They can beat teams both with the run and the pass, ranking in the top 40 in the FBS in both categories. This is as opposed to Air Force who is 8th in yards per game rushing but 118th in yards per game passing. On defense, I'd rank the two essentially even. Air Force gets a bit more pressure on the QB (32 sacks to 27 for WMU), but the Broncos have also recovered more fumbles and caught more interceptions. I'm gonna take Western Michigan due to their offensive balance and the fact that they rank in the top 40 in terms of run defense. If they can at least contain the Falcons run game, they should win.
My Call: Western Michigan 38, Air Force 35
Camellia Bowl: Bowling Green vs. South Alabama (at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama)
Kind of a home game for South Alabama. No, they won't be in their home stadium, but it's not far... just a two and a half hour drive from Mobile to Montgomery. The Jaguars don't score a ton of points at just a shade over 22 a game and are only 100th in the FBS in terms of passing yards per game, but they do run the ball pretty well; ranking top 50 in the FBS and play decent enough defense, ranking middle of the pack. Bowling Green has a pretty good offense but a God awful defense which ranks 109th in terms of points per game given up. This is a tough call. I'm gonna take Bowling Green just because I believe in the Mid-American Conference more than I believe in the Sun Belt, but this one could just as easily go the other way.
My Call: Bowling Green 41, South Alabama 38
Miami Beach Bowl: BYU vs. Memphis (at Marlins Park in Miami, Florida)
Memphis is a team I really like. They have a solid rushing attack, don't beat themselves with mistakes and boast a fantastic defense. Brigham Young has bounced back from a four game slide in the middle of the season, but didn't really beat anybody of real note in the process. The best win of their last four minus Taysom Hill was a win over a Cal team that is home for the holidays. Memphis probably won't put a ton of points on the board, but I think provided they stay true to their formula which worked well enough to winning a share of the American Athletic Conference, they can and will beat BYU.
My Call: Memphis 27, BYU 23
Boca Raton Bowl: Marshall vs. Northern Illinois (at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida)
Don't like Memphis? Well this should be a good game for you to watch since I don't foresee either defense really being able to slow down the offenses. Marshall is led by NFL prospect Rakeem Cato at QB, but they can hand it off to Devon Johnson and be just as explosive. Drew Hare leads the Northern Illinois attack. The sophomore may not have big passing numbers, but he limits the mistakes with just two interceptions thrown and also adds a dimension with his legs, rushing for 850 yards and 8 touchdowns on the season. Marshall's defense does a nice job of getting into the backfield, as they have five guys with at least 9.5 tackles for loss. I'll take the Thundering Herd to find a way behind senior Rakeem Cato.
My Call: Marshall 37, Northern Illinois 31
Poinsettia Bowl: Navy vs. San Diego State (at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California)
No need to say this is kind of a home game for San Diego State as they'll get to play this game in their home stadium. How nice it must be to be them, right? With Navy, you know exactly what you're going to get. They aren't gonna throw the ball very much, but they'll run that crazy triple option offense and just dare your defense to stop it. This formula has worked well for the Midshipmen as they're averaging 33 points a game. The Aztecs allow just 14 points per game defensively, which is good for 20th in the FBS, so that creates an interesting matchup. Although they only rank 42nd in terms of rush yards per game allowed, so I do think Navy could find some success, especially since the triple option isn't easy to prepare for. Like Navy, San Diego State also relies on their rushing attack, but in a more conventional style. I'm gonna take the Aztecs because it's essentially a home game for them and I trust their defense more than I trust Navy's to eventually slow a running game down to a certain extent.
My Call: San Diego State 35, Navy 31
Bahamas Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky (at Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas)
Winners of bowl season regardless of the outcome of the game? These two teams. Who wouldn't want to spend Christmas Eve in the Bahamas? If you love passing, Western Kentucky may turn into your favorite team. They're number one in the country in terms of passing yards per game. QB Brandon Doughty has thrown for over 4300 yards and 44 touchdowns on the season. They can also get it done in the running game behind Leon Allen. Problem is these guys can't stop anybody, allowing over 39 points per game. Central Michigan is much better defensively, allowing just a shade over 23 points per game, but they don't have a very good offense... only scoring a shade over 25 a game and they don't really stand out for their rushing or passing attack. Gonna throw the dart and take the Hilltoppers. This goes against my usual take the better defense mantra, but crazy things can tend to happen during bowl season. So why not?
My Call: Western Kentucky 49, Central Michigan 45
Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State vs. Rice (at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii)
Two more winners of bowl season regardless of the outcome; spending Christmas Eve in Hawaii is a nice deal for these two clubs. Personally, I like bowl games myself, but I will say if you're one of those people who thinks there are a few too many bowl games, you'd best make your case here where a 6-7 Fresno State team is participating. Doing a bit of research, I noticed these two teams are quite similar in the number of yards the run and pass for per game as well as the number of points they score and allow per game. In a case like this, I'm gonna go with the team in the better conference and the one that should have the best player on the field. That's Fresno State in both cases. The Mountain West is better than Conference USA and WR Josh Harper should be the best player on the field.
My Call: Fresno State 38, Rice 30
Heart of Dallas Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs. Illinois (at Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas)
Illini coach Tim Beckman did just enough to save his job; getting them to this bowl game. They will do battle against a Louisiana Tech team that fell just short in the Conference USA Championship Game against Marshall. The Bulldogs have a strong offensive team that ranks 13th in the nation in terms of points per game, averaging 37.5 points per contest. They get to go against an Illinois team that gave up nearly 34 points per game. I see a huge day for QB Cody Sokol and Co en route to a double digit victory.
My Call: Louisiana Tech 38, Illinois 28
Quick Lane Bowl: Rutgers vs. North Carolina (at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan)
Big 10 vs. the ACC at the home of the Detroit Lions. UNC is like the ACC's version of Western Kentucky; they score a lot of points and give up a lot of points. They should be successful against a Rutgers team that gives up nearly 31 points per game. Although Rutgers doesn't have a particularly explosive offensive team, they should be able to score on a Tar Heel defense that gives up nearly 39 points a game. This game will likely come down to whether UNC's gambling defense pays off or whether Rutgers can get pressure up front defensively. I wouldn't bet on either of these teams nor would I be surprised if this goes to OT... I'll pick Rutgers.
My Call: Rutgers 43, North Carolina 40
St. Petersburg Bowl: NC State vs. Central Florida (at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida)
It'll be an easy hour and a half trek for UCF to St. Petersburg from Orlando. Plus they also bring an outstanding defense to the stadium, one that gives up just a shade under 18 points per game. NC State brings a solid rushing attack and although QB Jacoby Brissett may not put up the flashiest numbers, he doesn't make a lot of bad throwing decisions; having just 5 interceptions on the season. Between what I expect could be at least a slight homefield advantage for the Knights and having the better defense, I'll go with them by a field goal. They'll definitely want to keep this one in the low-to-mid 20s though. A higher scoring game would likely favor NC State.
My Call: Central Florida 23, NC State 20
Military Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech (at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland)
Contrast of styles will go at it in this one. Virginia Tech has a stout defense but an offense that can look downright horrendous at times while Cincinnati can put up the points but can have issues when it comes to stopping opposing offenses. I'm not fond of the Bearcats defense, but am even less fond of Virginia Tech QB Michael Brewer. He makes so many mistakes that he's too difficult to trust. Plus the Bearcats aren't bad at rushing the QB, so they could make him hurry some throws. It'll be up to Cincinnati's offensive line to buy enough time for their QB in Gunner Kiel. Virginia Tech provides a nice challenge in that regard as they come into this game with 44 sacks on the season, which is good for fourth in the FBS. Saw a prediction on this game on another site that I liked, so I think I'll go with something very close to it.
My Call: Cincinnati 28, Virginia Tech 24
Sun Bowl: Duke vs. #15 Arizona State (at Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas)
Defense will need to keep an explosive ASU offense in check for Duke if they are to have a shot in this one. Their offense isn't what I would classify as terrible, but I also wouldn't classify it as likely to beat this Sun Devil team in a shootout. Here's what I believe will happen... Duke will come in well prepared and won't quit. ASU is gonna have to come ready or else they could find themselves being a disappointment for a second straight bowl season. But I think they'll do just enough to make last year's loss to Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl a (somewhat) distant memory.
My Call: Arizona State 30, Duke 24
Independence Bowl: Miami (FL) vs. South Carolina (at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana)
You never want to finish a season below the .500 mark. That's what will happen for the loser of this game as both teams enter with a 6-6 record. The major problem for South Carolina this season has been their defense. That was somewhat understandable given the losses of guys like Jadeveon Clowney among others, but 31 points per game couldn't have been expected. As far as Miami goes... well, I just think they're mired in mediocrity. That said, they do have a couple of high level NFL players on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they're led by running back Duke Johnson and on defense, it's Denzel Perryman leading the way. I really don't know about this game either, it's mediocrity all the way around. Changed my mind... taking the Canes instead
My Call: Miami (FL) 34, South Carolina 30
Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College vs. Penn State (at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York)
Protecting talented QB Christian Hackenberg is what it'll come down to for Penn State offensively if they want to have a chance on that side of the ball. Unfortunately, they've done a pretty awful job of that all season long as he's been sacked 42 times. Boston College QB Tyler Murphy is like a poor man's Nick Marshall (had to throw this one in there as an Auburn fan). He's not a terrific passer, but he sure can make a lot of big things happen with his feet, as he's run for over 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season. Keeping him in the pocket will be a key for Penn State defensively. Boston College does a decent job at getting after the QB, they've accumulated 30 sacks on the season. There won't be many points scored in this one. I'll take Boston College thinking Murphy will bust a couple big runs to make just enough of a difference.
My Call: Boston College 13, Penn State 10
Holiday Bowl: Nebraska vs. #24 USC (at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego)
Fiery Bo Pelini has been fired by Nebraska and is now the head coach at Youngstown State. Being a consistent 9 or 10 win guy with a consistent 4 losses per season just wasn't good enough in Lincoln. We'll see over time if new coach Mike Riley can produce better. For now though, the Huskers will sink or swim offensively with running back Ameer Abdullah. The senior running back has rushed for over 1500 yards and 18 touchdowns on the season. USC is a bit more balanced offensively, Javorious Allen can rush for plenty of yards, but they tend to ride the arm of QB Cody Kessler a bit more. He threw for over 4300 yards and 36 touchdowns with only 4 interceptions. USC does a solid job against the run, ranking 27th in the FBS. I expect they'll stack the line and try making Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong beat them with his arm. He won't do that. USC takes it.
My Call: USC 31, Nebraska 23
Liberty Bowl: Texas A&M vs. West Virginia (at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee)
One of the more exciting games of bowl season could be taking place right here as it could result in a possible scoreboard explosion. Senior QB Clint Trickett will not be back under center for the Mountaineers, and his replacement will love slinging the ball to his top receivers, Mario Alford and Kevin White. The latter has a very good chance of being a first round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. Meanwhile, Texas A&M and talented freshman QB Kyle Allen will be looking to build a little momentum towards next season. Another thing the Aggies will be able to hang their hats on is freshman defensive lineman Myles Garrett being a nightmare for the West Virginia offensive line. The Aggies don't have a very good defense as a whole, but he's the real deal. Now with Trickett out, I have adjusted my prediction as such. I still think West Virginia will put up a good amount of points, but those few points less make the difference.
My Call: Texas A&M 34, West Virginia 31
Russell Athletic Bowl: Oklahoma vs. #17 Clemson (at Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida)
Got a game here where one team will be getting its usual starting QB back while the other will be without theirs. Oklahoma sophomore Trevor Knight will be back after missing the final three regular season games. Clemson freshman starter DeShaun Watson recently had surgery to repair a torn ACL. That will be a smart move for them in the long term, but will very likely hurt their chances in this bowl game as senior Cole Stoudt has been nothing short of awful as Watson's fill-in. That said, the Tigers do have one of the nation's top defenses at their disposal (led by the outstanding Vic Beasley and coordinated by ex-Sooners defensive coordinator Brent Venables) and will be going up against what should be a rusty QB. And even if Knight wasn't rusty, he never really carried the momentum from last year's Sugar Bowl where he played so well against Alabama into this season. If Watson were playing, I'd be taking Clemson without hesitation. I just don't have enough faith in Stoudt even though Oklahoma hasn't looked brilliant themselves this season and probably won't look brilliant in this one either. A lower scoring affair seems about right.
My Call: Oklahoma 21, Clemson 20
Texas Bowl: Arkansas vs. Texas (at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas)
Like the dilemma facing Miami and South Carolina in the Independence Bowl, Texas and Arkansas are both in a situation where they have to win in order to avoid having a losing season. It's kinda tough to say which team took a tougher path to get here. Probably Arkansas due to the quality of the competition, but their paths weren't too unfamiliar. Texas was at 3-5 not long ago, which meant there was a distinct possibility of no bowl game at all. But they rattled off three straight wins over Texas Tech, West Virginia and Oklahoma State before losing to TCU in the finale to get themselves the necessary six wins needed for bowl eligibility. Arkansas was sitting at 4-5 and starring at a tough road to hoe to get to a bowl game, but consecutive shutout home victories against LSU and Ole Miss before a loss in the finale to Missouri got them their necessary six wins. Neither of these teams will be putting up big totals through the air. The Razorbacks appear to have an edge in the running game; as they have two backs in Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins who both rushed for over 1000 yards and ran for 11 and 12 TDs, respectively. I expect a very physical game and expect Arkansas to win.
My Call: Arkansas 24, Texas 13
Music City Bowl: Notre Dame vs. #23 LSU (at LP Field in Nashville, Tennessee)
Notre Dame may be the team that's most glad the regular season is over and bowl season is here. Even after the tough loss to Florida State, the Irish were very much in the hunt for at least one of the playoff games if not the actual four game playoff itself. But they lost their last four games to end the season and will end their 2014 in Nashville, instead. It'll be the last game for senior QB Everett Golson, although he will split the reps with sophomore Malik Zaire. Loss of key personnel seemed to catch up to LSU and head coach Les Miles a bit this season; and they ended the year at 8-4, 4-4 in SEC play. Nashville got about as good a matchup as they could have possibly hoped for as both the Irish and Tigers will bring a lot of fans to them to Nashville. It'll be an interesting matchup between two units that struggled a lot of the season. Notre Dame's defense struggled mightily down the stretch while a young LSU offense had its struggles throughout the course of the season. Nothing would really surprise me here... in a throw of the dart, I'll take LSU by a field goal.
My Call: LSU 23, Notre Dame 20
Belk Bowl: #21 Louisville vs. #13 Georgia (at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina)
Couple of my least favorite teams going at it here. Other than Alabama, Georgia is likely the second most disliked team amongst Auburn fans. Normally, I wouldn't care a whole lot about Louisville, but now that Bobby Petrino is their head coach, they're right up there amongst my top 6 most hated college football teams. Anyway, with all this in mind, I don't want to spend too much time analyzing this one. Louisville's offense was inconsistent all season, but they seemed to show some improvement over the last three games. Their defense is one of the best in the country but will have a chore in trying to slow down Georgia running back Nick Chubb, who I personally think is better than the more hyped Todd Gurley, who won't be playing in this game because of a torn ACL. I think Georgia has the better team, but they can be very up and down. For example, they crushed Auburn but got crushed by a pretty average Florida team. I guess I'll take Georgia since I do believe they're the better team, but not with a ton of confidence.
My Call: Georgia 24, Louisville 21
Foster Farms Bowl: Maryland vs. Stanford (at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California)
Another game where one team will essentially be playing what amounts to a home game as the Stanford campus is essentially about a 25 or so minute drive from Levi's Stadium. This is as opposed to College Park (home of the Terps), which is nearly 3000 miles away. No, Maryland won't drive to Santa Clara, they'll fly, but if you're Maryland, you have to love another road game. Looking at this game, I see a fairly low scoring affair. The Stanford offense has struggled some during the season, but have made up for it with a defense that's second in the FBS in terms of points allowed per game. Between that and what should be a homefield advantage, I'll take Stanford.
My Call: Stanford 24, Maryland 19
Citrus Bowl: #25 Minnesota vs. #16 Missouri (at Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando)
Gotta admit that having watched Missouri this year, I've come away very unimpressed at times. However, they may have a team they match up very well against in this bowl game. Minnesota's passing attack is virtually non-existent, it ranks 124th in the FBS at a shade of just over 131 yards per game. They are going to sink or swim with their rushing attack. It's led by running back David Cobb who rushed for 1545 yards and 13 scores on the season as well as QB Mitch Leidner, who was most effective with his legs, rushing for 11 scores. Minnesota's defense is solid overall in terms of points per game, allowing 23.4 points per game, but they aren't particularly wonderful when it comes to stopping either the run or the pass. Plus they don't get a ton of pressure on the QB, registering just 24 sacks as a team. Missouri, on the other hand, has registered 42 sacks as a team. They're led by Markus Golden and Shane Ray, who combined for 22.5 sacks and 37 tackles for loss. It's been a better combination than even the pass rush combo of Michael Sam and Kony Ealy was for the Tigers a year ago. Between the great pass rush and Minnesota's one dimensional offense, I'll take Mizzou. They may not light it up on the scoreboard, but I think they'll get the job done.
My Call: Missouri 24, Minnesota 17
Armed Forces Bowl: Houston vs. Pittsburgh (at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas)
Case Keenum's Houston Cougars are a long way away from this game. This Cougar team relied on a defense that ranked 11th in FBS in points allowed per game at 19.5 to get to this game. Pittsburgh has relied on a couple outstanding offensive skill players in running back James Connor who bruised his way to 24 TD rushes and sophomore WR Tyler Boyd, whose sophomore season basically duplicated his freshman season. Outstanding left tackle T.J. Clemmings has been a big part of the Panthers offense, protecting the QB and opening up holes for Connor. I'm leaning towards Pittsburgh in this one, winning in what may be a semi-road game.
My Call: Pittsburgh 26, Houston 24
TaxSlayer Bowl: Iowa vs. Tennessee (at EverBank Field in Jacksonville, Florida)
Youth vs. Experience. A young Vols team will look to gain momentum into the 2015 season while a more experienced Hawkeye team is looking for some of their seniors to finish off their careers the right way. One of those Iowa seniors is senior left tackle Brandon Scherff, who seems very likely to be a top 10 to 15 selection come the 2015 NFL Draft. After looking over all the stats which I am too lazy to post into this game's preview, I honestly have no idea who I think is gonna win. I do think this will be more of a low scoring game... so with a throw of the dart, I'll take the Vols.
My Call: Tennessee 20, Iowa 17
Alamo Bowl: #14 UCLA vs. #11 Kansas State (at Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas)
UCLA has been sort of an enigma this season. They can have games such as against ASU and USC where they look like one of the best teams in college football and then struggle with lesser teams and lay eggs against Oregon and Stanford that make you wonder what the heck is going on with them? Meanwhile, Kansas State had a very nice season, although they did lose to the three best teams on their schedule (Auburn, Baylor, TCU). Although I like this Kansas State team, I'm not sure how well they match up with this Bruins team. UCLA's offensive line has looked vulnerable at times this year, but K-State doesn't get a ton of pressure on opposing QBs (just 24 on the season) and they're very one dimensional offensively, they don't run the ball well at all. I dunno how well that's gonna work here. I'll take UCLA because of all this and the fact that they are more legitimately and athletically talented, but the Wildcats are very well coached and will make em earn it.
My Call: UCLA 27, Kansas State 21
Cactus Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Washington (at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Arizona)
Been a roller coaster of a ride for Oklahoma State this season. They began the year 5-1, the one loss being a very hard fought loss against Florida State on a neutral field. It looked like we wouldn't be talking about them being in danger of missing out on a bowl game, but then came a five game losing streak and a do or die 'Bedlam' game with in state rival Oklahoma just to make a bowl game. The Cowboys won in overtime and they are here. It's sorta been the same way for their Northwest counterpart Huskies. Although Washington may not have always looked wonderful, they also started the season at 5-1 before losing four of their next five games. However, they bounced back and won their last two games to get to 8-5 and get themselves here. Okie State doesn't really do anything wonderfully and I think the Huskie defense led by first team All-American Danny Shelton will be the difference and win this game for them.
My Call: Washington 28, Oklahoma State 20
Birmingham Bowl: Florida vs. East Carolina (at Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama)
Hard to believe I still have yet to get this pick in. Well, I'll do it now. Florida fired head coach Will Muschamp (who went to be Auburn's defensive coordinator) and brought in Jim McElwain from Colorado State to replace him. This will also be Dante Fowler's last game for the Gators, as the junior will depart for the NFL afterwards and is looking like he'll be an early first round selection. East Carolina will have a hard time dealing with him and a very tough Gator defense, but they do have QB Shane Carden and a prolific passing game at their disposal. Carden is seen as more of a mid-to-late round pick in this upcoming draft, but he's had an excellent career at ECU and will be looking to cap it off the right way. I'll take the Pirates by a field goal. I don't see either offense putting up many points, but I have more faith in Carden and ECU to put up more than I do in UF's offense.
My Call: East Carolina 23, Florida 21
GoDaddy Bowl: Toledo vs. Arkansas State (at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama)
Last non-playoff bowl game for me to analyze will be the GoDaddy Bowl. Having a look at some stats, I don't see the defenses being very successful. This should be a wild affair. Toledo has an excellent offense that scores over 34 points per game and is led by a very strong rushing attack. Same story for Arkansas State; they score about 36 points per game and have the 22nd ranked run attack in FBS. Two more areas these teams are similar in is having not so stout defenses. The Red Wolves struggle mightily in stopping the run; which should play very much into Toledo's hands. Although the Rockets rank 18th in FBS in terms of rush yards allowed per game, part of me wonders if that's because teams just choose to pass on them at will given how much their pass defense struggles. The Rockets rank 122nd in terms of pass yards allowed per game. Good news for Arkansas State is they do a better job of getting after the QB and forcing turnovers. Bad news is they'll be without a very key contributor; redshirt freshman Ja'Von Rolland-Jones. He was a first-team All-Sun Belt selection, recording 8 sacks and 12 tackles for loss on the season. This one's tough... I'll go with Toledo due to said key contributor not being available for the Red Wolves and the fact that the Rockets should be able to control the pace of the game with their running game.
My Call: Toledo 38, Arkansas State 35
New Orleans Bowl: Nevada vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (at Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana)
Did a little bit of research and I think these two teams are very similar. Both are offenses that will rely on the run game for most of the production and are about dead even in terms of passing, points scored and points allowed per game. Almost scary if you ask me. Louisiana-Lafayette should have somewhat of a "homefield advantage" given that New Orleans is just a two hour drive for the Cajuns. But I like Nevada in a tight one since they play in the better conference and have shown pretty darn well in their tougher matchups this season. They lost to Fiesta Bowl participants Arizona and Boise State by a combined 12 points. The Rajun Cajuns, on the other hand, generally got blown out by the best non-Sun Belt teams they fared against in Louisiana Tech and Boise State.
My Call: Nevada 33, Louisiana-Lafayette 30
New Mexico Bowl: Utah State vs. UTEP (at University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico)
Unlike in the New Orleans Bowl, what I think we have here is a game between two games that are not very much alike at all. UTEP ranks 120th in the country in terms of passing yards per game, is 70th in the country in points per game scored and 82nd in points allowed. What saves them is a run game led by El Paso's own Aaron Jones' 1233 yards and 11 TDs ranked 34th in the nation. Utah State has a very average offensive team in general, ranking middle of the pack when it comes to rushing and 84th in passing yards per game. What saves these guys is their defense which ranks 21st in the country, allowing just under 21 per game. This seems like a bad matchup for the Miners. They're going up against a rush defense which ranks 26th in the FBS, so you know the Aggies will commit to stopping the run and force a UTEP pass game which has shown next to nothing all year long to beat them. Utah State is gullible through the air, ranking just 76th in terms of yards allowed per game, but UTEP doesn't seem like the type of team who will take advantage. Aggies by a couple scores.
My Call: Utah State 31, UTEP 20
Las Vegas Bowl: Colorado State vs. #22 Utah (at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada)
Colorado State will have to make do without coach Jim McElwain, who is now the head coach of the Florida Gators. That said though, I still think they're the better, more balanced team in this game. Both have strong run games, but the Rams have a legit NFL prospect under center in QB Garrett Grayson. When Dee Hart isn't being handed the ball, Grayson will air it out to receiver Rashard Higgins, who was second in receiving yards in the country only to Amari Cooper. Utah will try countering this with Nate Orchard, who registered 17.5 sacks (good for second in the country) and 20 tackles for loss.
My Call: Colorado State 29, Utah 27
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan vs. Air Force (at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho)
Albertsons Stadium... seriously, Boise State? Way to sell out to the corporate sponsor there, guys. Anyway, looking at the numbers of these two teams, I love that Western Michigan is very balanced offensively. They can beat teams both with the run and the pass, ranking in the top 40 in the FBS in both categories. This is as opposed to Air Force who is 8th in yards per game rushing but 118th in yards per game passing. On defense, I'd rank the two essentially even. Air Force gets a bit more pressure on the QB (32 sacks to 27 for WMU), but the Broncos have also recovered more fumbles and caught more interceptions. I'm gonna take Western Michigan due to their offensive balance and the fact that they rank in the top 40 in terms of run defense. If they can at least contain the Falcons run game, they should win.
My Call: Western Michigan 38, Air Force 35
Camellia Bowl: Bowling Green vs. South Alabama (at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama)
Kind of a home game for South Alabama. No, they won't be in their home stadium, but it's not far... just a two and a half hour drive from Mobile to Montgomery. The Jaguars don't score a ton of points at just a shade over 22 a game and are only 100th in the FBS in terms of passing yards per game, but they do run the ball pretty well; ranking top 50 in the FBS and play decent enough defense, ranking middle of the pack. Bowling Green has a pretty good offense but a God awful defense which ranks 109th in terms of points per game given up. This is a tough call. I'm gonna take Bowling Green just because I believe in the Mid-American Conference more than I believe in the Sun Belt, but this one could just as easily go the other way.
My Call: Bowling Green 41, South Alabama 38
Miami Beach Bowl: BYU vs. Memphis (at Marlins Park in Miami, Florida)
Memphis is a team I really like. They have a solid rushing attack, don't beat themselves with mistakes and boast a fantastic defense. Brigham Young has bounced back from a four game slide in the middle of the season, but didn't really beat anybody of real note in the process. The best win of their last four minus Taysom Hill was a win over a Cal team that is home for the holidays. Memphis probably won't put a ton of points on the board, but I think provided they stay true to their formula which worked well enough to winning a share of the American Athletic Conference, they can and will beat BYU.
My Call: Memphis 27, BYU 23
Boca Raton Bowl: Marshall vs. Northern Illinois (at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida)
Don't like Memphis? Well this should be a good game for you to watch since I don't foresee either defense really being able to slow down the offenses. Marshall is led by NFL prospect Rakeem Cato at QB, but they can hand it off to Devon Johnson and be just as explosive. Drew Hare leads the Northern Illinois attack. The sophomore may not have big passing numbers, but he limits the mistakes with just two interceptions thrown and also adds a dimension with his legs, rushing for 850 yards and 8 touchdowns on the season. Marshall's defense does a nice job of getting into the backfield, as they have five guys with at least 9.5 tackles for loss. I'll take the Thundering Herd to find a way behind senior Rakeem Cato.
My Call: Marshall 37, Northern Illinois 31
Poinsettia Bowl: Navy vs. San Diego State (at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California)
No need to say this is kind of a home game for San Diego State as they'll get to play this game in their home stadium. How nice it must be to be them, right? With Navy, you know exactly what you're going to get. They aren't gonna throw the ball very much, but they'll run that crazy triple option offense and just dare your defense to stop it. This formula has worked well for the Midshipmen as they're averaging 33 points a game. The Aztecs allow just 14 points per game defensively, which is good for 20th in the FBS, so that creates an interesting matchup. Although they only rank 42nd in terms of rush yards per game allowed, so I do think Navy could find some success, especially since the triple option isn't easy to prepare for. Like Navy, San Diego State also relies on their rushing attack, but in a more conventional style. I'm gonna take the Aztecs because it's essentially a home game for them and I trust their defense more than I trust Navy's to eventually slow a running game down to a certain extent.
My Call: San Diego State 35, Navy 31
Bahamas Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky (at Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas)
Winners of bowl season regardless of the outcome of the game? These two teams. Who wouldn't want to spend Christmas Eve in the Bahamas? If you love passing, Western Kentucky may turn into your favorite team. They're number one in the country in terms of passing yards per game. QB Brandon Doughty has thrown for over 4300 yards and 44 touchdowns on the season. They can also get it done in the running game behind Leon Allen. Problem is these guys can't stop anybody, allowing over 39 points per game. Central Michigan is much better defensively, allowing just a shade over 23 points per game, but they don't have a very good offense... only scoring a shade over 25 a game and they don't really stand out for their rushing or passing attack. Gonna throw the dart and take the Hilltoppers. This goes against my usual take the better defense mantra, but crazy things can tend to happen during bowl season. So why not?
My Call: Western Kentucky 49, Central Michigan 45
Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State vs. Rice (at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii)
Two more winners of bowl season regardless of the outcome; spending Christmas Eve in Hawaii is a nice deal for these two clubs. Personally, I like bowl games myself, but I will say if you're one of those people who thinks there are a few too many bowl games, you'd best make your case here where a 6-7 Fresno State team is participating. Doing a bit of research, I noticed these two teams are quite similar in the number of yards the run and pass for per game as well as the number of points they score and allow per game. In a case like this, I'm gonna go with the team in the better conference and the one that should have the best player on the field. That's Fresno State in both cases. The Mountain West is better than Conference USA and WR Josh Harper should be the best player on the field.
My Call: Fresno State 38, Rice 30
Heart of Dallas Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs. Illinois (at Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas)
Illini coach Tim Beckman did just enough to save his job; getting them to this bowl game. They will do battle against a Louisiana Tech team that fell just short in the Conference USA Championship Game against Marshall. The Bulldogs have a strong offensive team that ranks 13th in the nation in terms of points per game, averaging 37.5 points per contest. They get to go against an Illinois team that gave up nearly 34 points per game. I see a huge day for QB Cody Sokol and Co en route to a double digit victory.
My Call: Louisiana Tech 38, Illinois 28
Quick Lane Bowl: Rutgers vs. North Carolina (at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan)
Big 10 vs. the ACC at the home of the Detroit Lions. UNC is like the ACC's version of Western Kentucky; they score a lot of points and give up a lot of points. They should be successful against a Rutgers team that gives up nearly 31 points per game. Although Rutgers doesn't have a particularly explosive offensive team, they should be able to score on a Tar Heel defense that gives up nearly 39 points a game. This game will likely come down to whether UNC's gambling defense pays off or whether Rutgers can get pressure up front defensively. I wouldn't bet on either of these teams nor would I be surprised if this goes to OT... I'll pick Rutgers.
My Call: Rutgers 43, North Carolina 40
St. Petersburg Bowl: NC State vs. Central Florida (at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida)
It'll be an easy hour and a half trek for UCF to St. Petersburg from Orlando. Plus they also bring an outstanding defense to the stadium, one that gives up just a shade under 18 points per game. NC State brings a solid rushing attack and although QB Jacoby Brissett may not put up the flashiest numbers, he doesn't make a lot of bad throwing decisions; having just 5 interceptions on the season. Between what I expect could be at least a slight homefield advantage for the Knights and having the better defense, I'll go with them by a field goal. They'll definitely want to keep this one in the low-to-mid 20s though. A higher scoring game would likely favor NC State.
My Call: Central Florida 23, NC State 20
Military Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech (at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland)
Contrast of styles will go at it in this one. Virginia Tech has a stout defense but an offense that can look downright horrendous at times while Cincinnati can put up the points but can have issues when it comes to stopping opposing offenses. I'm not fond of the Bearcats defense, but am even less fond of Virginia Tech QB Michael Brewer. He makes so many mistakes that he's too difficult to trust. Plus the Bearcats aren't bad at rushing the QB, so they could make him hurry some throws. It'll be up to Cincinnati's offensive line to buy enough time for their QB in Gunner Kiel. Virginia Tech provides a nice challenge in that regard as they come into this game with 44 sacks on the season, which is good for fourth in the FBS. Saw a prediction on this game on another site that I liked, so I think I'll go with something very close to it.
My Call: Cincinnati 28, Virginia Tech 24
Sun Bowl: Duke vs. #15 Arizona State (at Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas)
Defense will need to keep an explosive ASU offense in check for Duke if they are to have a shot in this one. Their offense isn't what I would classify as terrible, but I also wouldn't classify it as likely to beat this Sun Devil team in a shootout. Here's what I believe will happen... Duke will come in well prepared and won't quit. ASU is gonna have to come ready or else they could find themselves being a disappointment for a second straight bowl season. But I think they'll do just enough to make last year's loss to Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl a (somewhat) distant memory.
My Call: Arizona State 30, Duke 24
Independence Bowl: Miami (FL) vs. South Carolina (at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana)
You never want to finish a season below the .500 mark. That's what will happen for the loser of this game as both teams enter with a 6-6 record. The major problem for South Carolina this season has been their defense. That was somewhat understandable given the losses of guys like Jadeveon Clowney among others, but 31 points per game couldn't have been expected. As far as Miami goes... well, I just think they're mired in mediocrity. That said, they do have a couple of high level NFL players on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they're led by running back Duke Johnson and on defense, it's Denzel Perryman leading the way. I really don't know about this game either, it's mediocrity all the way around. Changed my mind... taking the Canes instead
My Call: Miami (FL) 34, South Carolina 30
Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College vs. Penn State (at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York)
Protecting talented QB Christian Hackenberg is what it'll come down to for Penn State offensively if they want to have a chance on that side of the ball. Unfortunately, they've done a pretty awful job of that all season long as he's been sacked 42 times. Boston College QB Tyler Murphy is like a poor man's Nick Marshall (had to throw this one in there as an Auburn fan). He's not a terrific passer, but he sure can make a lot of big things happen with his feet, as he's run for over 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season. Keeping him in the pocket will be a key for Penn State defensively. Boston College does a decent job at getting after the QB, they've accumulated 30 sacks on the season. There won't be many points scored in this one. I'll take Boston College thinking Murphy will bust a couple big runs to make just enough of a difference.
My Call: Boston College 13, Penn State 10
Holiday Bowl: Nebraska vs. #24 USC (at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego)
Fiery Bo Pelini has been fired by Nebraska and is now the head coach at Youngstown State. Being a consistent 9 or 10 win guy with a consistent 4 losses per season just wasn't good enough in Lincoln. We'll see over time if new coach Mike Riley can produce better. For now though, the Huskers will sink or swim offensively with running back Ameer Abdullah. The senior running back has rushed for over 1500 yards and 18 touchdowns on the season. USC is a bit more balanced offensively, Javorious Allen can rush for plenty of yards, but they tend to ride the arm of QB Cody Kessler a bit more. He threw for over 4300 yards and 36 touchdowns with only 4 interceptions. USC does a solid job against the run, ranking 27th in the FBS. I expect they'll stack the line and try making Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong beat them with his arm. He won't do that. USC takes it.
My Call: USC 31, Nebraska 23
Liberty Bowl: Texas A&M vs. West Virginia (at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee)
One of the more exciting games of bowl season could be taking place right here as it could result in a possible scoreboard explosion. Senior QB Clint Trickett will not be back under center for the Mountaineers, and his replacement will love slinging the ball to his top receivers, Mario Alford and Kevin White. The latter has a very good chance of being a first round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. Meanwhile, Texas A&M and talented freshman QB Kyle Allen will be looking to build a little momentum towards next season. Another thing the Aggies will be able to hang their hats on is freshman defensive lineman Myles Garrett being a nightmare for the West Virginia offensive line. The Aggies don't have a very good defense as a whole, but he's the real deal. Now with Trickett out, I have adjusted my prediction as such. I still think West Virginia will put up a good amount of points, but those few points less make the difference.
My Call: Texas A&M 34, West Virginia 31
Russell Athletic Bowl: Oklahoma vs. #17 Clemson (at Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida)
Got a game here where one team will be getting its usual starting QB back while the other will be without theirs. Oklahoma sophomore Trevor Knight will be back after missing the final three regular season games. Clemson freshman starter DeShaun Watson recently had surgery to repair a torn ACL. That will be a smart move for them in the long term, but will very likely hurt their chances in this bowl game as senior Cole Stoudt has been nothing short of awful as Watson's fill-in. That said, the Tigers do have one of the nation's top defenses at their disposal (led by the outstanding Vic Beasley and coordinated by ex-Sooners defensive coordinator Brent Venables) and will be going up against what should be a rusty QB. And even if Knight wasn't rusty, he never really carried the momentum from last year's Sugar Bowl where he played so well against Alabama into this season. If Watson were playing, I'd be taking Clemson without hesitation. I just don't have enough faith in Stoudt even though Oklahoma hasn't looked brilliant themselves this season and probably won't look brilliant in this one either. A lower scoring affair seems about right.
My Call: Oklahoma 21, Clemson 20
Texas Bowl: Arkansas vs. Texas (at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas)
Like the dilemma facing Miami and South Carolina in the Independence Bowl, Texas and Arkansas are both in a situation where they have to win in order to avoid having a losing season. It's kinda tough to say which team took a tougher path to get here. Probably Arkansas due to the quality of the competition, but their paths weren't too unfamiliar. Texas was at 3-5 not long ago, which meant there was a distinct possibility of no bowl game at all. But they rattled off three straight wins over Texas Tech, West Virginia and Oklahoma State before losing to TCU in the finale to get themselves the necessary six wins needed for bowl eligibility. Arkansas was sitting at 4-5 and starring at a tough road to hoe to get to a bowl game, but consecutive shutout home victories against LSU and Ole Miss before a loss in the finale to Missouri got them their necessary six wins. Neither of these teams will be putting up big totals through the air. The Razorbacks appear to have an edge in the running game; as they have two backs in Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins who both rushed for over 1000 yards and ran for 11 and 12 TDs, respectively. I expect a very physical game and expect Arkansas to win.
My Call: Arkansas 24, Texas 13
Music City Bowl: Notre Dame vs. #23 LSU (at LP Field in Nashville, Tennessee)
Notre Dame may be the team that's most glad the regular season is over and bowl season is here. Even after the tough loss to Florida State, the Irish were very much in the hunt for at least one of the playoff games if not the actual four game playoff itself. But they lost their last four games to end the season and will end their 2014 in Nashville, instead. It'll be the last game for senior QB Everett Golson, although he will split the reps with sophomore Malik Zaire. Loss of key personnel seemed to catch up to LSU and head coach Les Miles a bit this season; and they ended the year at 8-4, 4-4 in SEC play. Nashville got about as good a matchup as they could have possibly hoped for as both the Irish and Tigers will bring a lot of fans to them to Nashville. It'll be an interesting matchup between two units that struggled a lot of the season. Notre Dame's defense struggled mightily down the stretch while a young LSU offense had its struggles throughout the course of the season. Nothing would really surprise me here... in a throw of the dart, I'll take LSU by a field goal.
My Call: LSU 23, Notre Dame 20
Belk Bowl: #21 Louisville vs. #13 Georgia (at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina)
Couple of my least favorite teams going at it here. Other than Alabama, Georgia is likely the second most disliked team amongst Auburn fans. Normally, I wouldn't care a whole lot about Louisville, but now that Bobby Petrino is their head coach, they're right up there amongst my top 6 most hated college football teams. Anyway, with all this in mind, I don't want to spend too much time analyzing this one. Louisville's offense was inconsistent all season, but they seemed to show some improvement over the last three games. Their defense is one of the best in the country but will have a chore in trying to slow down Georgia running back Nick Chubb, who I personally think is better than the more hyped Todd Gurley, who won't be playing in this game because of a torn ACL. I think Georgia has the better team, but they can be very up and down. For example, they crushed Auburn but got crushed by a pretty average Florida team. I guess I'll take Georgia since I do believe they're the better team, but not with a ton of confidence.
My Call: Georgia 24, Louisville 21
Foster Farms Bowl: Maryland vs. Stanford (at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California)
Another game where one team will essentially be playing what amounts to a home game as the Stanford campus is essentially about a 25 or so minute drive from Levi's Stadium. This is as opposed to College Park (home of the Terps), which is nearly 3000 miles away. No, Maryland won't drive to Santa Clara, they'll fly, but if you're Maryland, you have to love another road game. Looking at this game, I see a fairly low scoring affair. The Stanford offense has struggled some during the season, but have made up for it with a defense that's second in the FBS in terms of points allowed per game. Between that and what should be a homefield advantage, I'll take Stanford.
My Call: Stanford 24, Maryland 19
Citrus Bowl: #25 Minnesota vs. #16 Missouri (at Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando)
Gotta admit that having watched Missouri this year, I've come away very unimpressed at times. However, they may have a team they match up very well against in this bowl game. Minnesota's passing attack is virtually non-existent, it ranks 124th in the FBS at a shade of just over 131 yards per game. They are going to sink or swim with their rushing attack. It's led by running back David Cobb who rushed for 1545 yards and 13 scores on the season as well as QB Mitch Leidner, who was most effective with his legs, rushing for 11 scores. Minnesota's defense is solid overall in terms of points per game, allowing 23.4 points per game, but they aren't particularly wonderful when it comes to stopping either the run or the pass. Plus they don't get a ton of pressure on the QB, registering just 24 sacks as a team. Missouri, on the other hand, has registered 42 sacks as a team. They're led by Markus Golden and Shane Ray, who combined for 22.5 sacks and 37 tackles for loss. It's been a better combination than even the pass rush combo of Michael Sam and Kony Ealy was for the Tigers a year ago. Between the great pass rush and Minnesota's one dimensional offense, I'll take Mizzou. They may not light it up on the scoreboard, but I think they'll get the job done.
My Call: Missouri 24, Minnesota 17
Armed Forces Bowl: Houston vs. Pittsburgh (at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas)
Case Keenum's Houston Cougars are a long way away from this game. This Cougar team relied on a defense that ranked 11th in FBS in points allowed per game at 19.5 to get to this game. Pittsburgh has relied on a couple outstanding offensive skill players in running back James Connor who bruised his way to 24 TD rushes and sophomore WR Tyler Boyd, whose sophomore season basically duplicated his freshman season. Outstanding left tackle T.J. Clemmings has been a big part of the Panthers offense, protecting the QB and opening up holes for Connor. I'm leaning towards Pittsburgh in this one, winning in what may be a semi-road game.
My Call: Pittsburgh 26, Houston 24
TaxSlayer Bowl: Iowa vs. Tennessee (at EverBank Field in Jacksonville, Florida)
Youth vs. Experience. A young Vols team will look to gain momentum into the 2015 season while a more experienced Hawkeye team is looking for some of their seniors to finish off their careers the right way. One of those Iowa seniors is senior left tackle Brandon Scherff, who seems very likely to be a top 10 to 15 selection come the 2015 NFL Draft. After looking over all the stats which I am too lazy to post into this game's preview, I honestly have no idea who I think is gonna win. I do think this will be more of a low scoring game... so with a throw of the dart, I'll take the Vols.
My Call: Tennessee 20, Iowa 17
Alamo Bowl: #14 UCLA vs. #11 Kansas State (at Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas)
UCLA has been sort of an enigma this season. They can have games such as against ASU and USC where they look like one of the best teams in college football and then struggle with lesser teams and lay eggs against Oregon and Stanford that make you wonder what the heck is going on with them? Meanwhile, Kansas State had a very nice season, although they did lose to the three best teams on their schedule (Auburn, Baylor, TCU). Although I like this Kansas State team, I'm not sure how well they match up with this Bruins team. UCLA's offensive line has looked vulnerable at times this year, but K-State doesn't get a ton of pressure on opposing QBs (just 24 on the season) and they're very one dimensional offensively, they don't run the ball well at all. I dunno how well that's gonna work here. I'll take UCLA because of all this and the fact that they are more legitimately and athletically talented, but the Wildcats are very well coached and will make em earn it.
My Call: UCLA 27, Kansas State 21
Cactus Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Washington (at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Arizona)
Been a roller coaster of a ride for Oklahoma State this season. They began the year 5-1, the one loss being a very hard fought loss against Florida State on a neutral field. It looked like we wouldn't be talking about them being in danger of missing out on a bowl game, but then came a five game losing streak and a do or die 'Bedlam' game with in state rival Oklahoma just to make a bowl game. The Cowboys won in overtime and they are here. It's sorta been the same way for their Northwest counterpart Huskies. Although Washington may not have always looked wonderful, they also started the season at 5-1 before losing four of their next five games. However, they bounced back and won their last two games to get to 8-5 and get themselves here. Okie State doesn't really do anything wonderfully and I think the Huskie defense led by first team All-American Danny Shelton will be the difference and win this game for them.
My Call: Washington 28, Oklahoma State 20
Birmingham Bowl: Florida vs. East Carolina (at Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama)
Hard to believe I still have yet to get this pick in. Well, I'll do it now. Florida fired head coach Will Muschamp (who went to be Auburn's defensive coordinator) and brought in Jim McElwain from Colorado State to replace him. This will also be Dante Fowler's last game for the Gators, as the junior will depart for the NFL afterwards and is looking like he'll be an early first round selection. East Carolina will have a hard time dealing with him and a very tough Gator defense, but they do have QB Shane Carden and a prolific passing game at their disposal. Carden is seen as more of a mid-to-late round pick in this upcoming draft, but he's had an excellent career at ECU and will be looking to cap it off the right way. I'll take the Pirates by a field goal. I don't see either offense putting up many points, but I have more faith in Carden and ECU to put up more than I do in UF's offense.
My Call: East Carolina 23, Florida 21
GoDaddy Bowl: Toledo vs. Arkansas State (at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama)
Last non-playoff bowl game for me to analyze will be the GoDaddy Bowl. Having a look at some stats, I don't see the defenses being very successful. This should be a wild affair. Toledo has an excellent offense that scores over 34 points per game and is led by a very strong rushing attack. Same story for Arkansas State; they score about 36 points per game and have the 22nd ranked run attack in FBS. Two more areas these teams are similar in is having not so stout defenses. The Red Wolves struggle mightily in stopping the run; which should play very much into Toledo's hands. Although the Rockets rank 18th in FBS in terms of rush yards allowed per game, part of me wonders if that's because teams just choose to pass on them at will given how much their pass defense struggles. The Rockets rank 122nd in terms of pass yards allowed per game. Good news for Arkansas State is they do a better job of getting after the QB and forcing turnovers. Bad news is they'll be without a very key contributor; redshirt freshman Ja'Von Rolland-Jones. He was a first-team All-Sun Belt selection, recording 8 sacks and 12 tackles for loss on the season. This one's tough... I'll go with Toledo due to said key contributor not being available for the Red Wolves and the fact that the Rockets should be able to control the pace of the game with their running game.
My Call: Toledo 38, Arkansas State 35
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