Monday, December 29, 2014

College Football Playoff Games and Picks

Peach Bowl: #9 Ole Miss vs. #6 TCU (at Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia)
One of these teams will be wanting to make a statement to the committee by saying they should have been the fourth team and had a shot at the national championship (TCU) while the other (Ole Miss) will be looking to cap off its first 10 win season since 2003. The Rebels bring with them a defense that ranked tops in the country in points per game allowed at 13.8 points per game as well as a senior QB in Bo Wallace who will want to cap off his college career with a win. The Horned Frogs bring junior QB Trevone Boykin who had an outstanding season as a dual threat QB as well as a stout defense of their own which ranked 17th in terms of points per game allowed at 20.2; 61 one of those coming in that gut punching 61-58 loss to Baylor. Boykin will want to keep the ball away from the side of Ole Miss corner Senquez Golson, who has picked off nine passes this season. When you've got two good defenses, I tend to lean towards the team that has more ways to beat you offensively and the QB you have more faith in. Both are TCU.
My Call: TCU 27, Ole Miss 21

Fiesta Bowl: #20 Boise State vs. #10 Arizona (at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona)
Thinking this will turn out to be a fun game, perhaps more fun than a lot of people would think when seeing the names of the two teams playing one another. Boise State brings with them one of the best running backs in the country in Jay Ajayi, who has declared for the 2015 NFL Draft. He has sorta gotten lost in the shuffle amongst the likes of Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Ameer Abdullah and the like, but it's hard to overlook rushing for 1689 yards and 25 TDs and catching 40 passes and 4 TD receptions. A true do-it-all back. Arizona has a very nice running back in their own right with true freshman Nick Wilson, who took over for Ka'Deem Carey and his enormous production. Wilson rushed for a touch under 1300 yards and 15 scores in his first college season. Kid will only get better also, which is a scary thought for the college football world. I'll take the Wildcats in what I expect will be a very close game because I think they're a bit more talented and they could have a bit of a homefield advantage, playing just a couple hours outside of Tucson.
My Call: Arizona 31, Boise State 28

Orange Bowl: #12 Georgia Tech vs. #7 Mississippi State (at Sun Life Stadium in Miami, Florida)
Yellow Jackets head coach came to Georgia Tech via Navy, so you figure he's a guy who will sink or swim with that triple option offense. Well, that's been exactly the case as his Jackets rank third in the FBS in terms of yards per game, averaging close to 334 yards per game. Although they don't have a highly ranked passing game and QB Justin Thomas has completed just 50 percent of his passes, he has thrown for 17 TDs compared to just five interceptions, so his ratios aren't bad at all. The Georgia Tech defense will have to account for Dak Prescott. The junior QB took a big step forward this season, throwing for 24 TD passes and nearly 3000 yards (as compared to 10 TD passes and nearly 2000 passing yards a season ago). Gotta worry about him as a rusher; his size/speed combo got him 939 yards and 13 TD scores on the season. Difference between the teams in my mind is two things, the Bulldogs can beat defenses both running and throwing and they have a couple NFL caliber players on defense in Preston Smith and a personal favorite of mine, linebacker Benardrick McKinney. I fully expect that kid to be a stud NFL linebacker.
My Call: Mississippi State 34, Georgia Tech 28

Cotton Bowl: #8 Michigan State vs. #5 Baylor (at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas)
Excellent Sparty defense will try and slow the nation's top scoring attack led by QB Bryce Petty. I fully expect this to be a very exciting Cotton Bowl with both offenses being at the forefront. Michigan State QB Connor Cook is an excellent QB in his own right and he's got Tony Lippett to sling it to and Jeremy Langford to hand it off to. On defense, both teams are led by outstanding defensive lineman. Shilique Calhoun creates all the havoc up front for the Spartans while Shawn Oakman of Baylor has been one of the major breakouts this year in college football, recording 10 sacks and 18.5 TFL becoming a possible first day pick for the 2015 NFL Draft. At the end of the day, I think a high scoring game as well as the venue favors Baylor. Arlington is just a little over an hour and a half outside of Waco, so Baylor should bring a very big crowd. I'm taking the Bears to outscore the Spartans by a few.
My Call: Baylor 42, Michigan State 38

Rose Bowl: #3 Florida State vs. #2 Oregon (at Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California)
Just how long can FSU continue to win close games? That question will be put to the test here as the Noles will be facing their toughest test of the season all the way across the country in Pasadena. They've been able to get past teams like Oklahoma State, Clemson, Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami, Florida, Boston College and Georgia Tech, but none of those teams is on Oregon's level. The Ducks high flying offense is led by Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariotta, who has racked up quite a stat line this season. 38 TD passes to just two interceptions to go along with 14 touchdown runs. My guess is this game may well bring out the best in Florida State QB Jameis Winston, who hasn't had a wonderful 2014 on or off the field, but was outstanding in leading FSU to the national title a year ago and winning the 2013 Heisman award. To me, the key to beating Oregon is to bring the fight to them. Be physical. That's what Arizona did in the first meeting with Oregon this season, winning 31-24 at Autzen Stadium and what Stanford did an excellent job of in year's past. Will FSU do the same and make it 30 straight victories? Not quite. They'll have the lead late, but Marcus Mariotta will lead the Ducks down the field and to the title game.
My Call: Oregon 38, Florida State 35

Sugar Bowl: #4 Ohio State vs. #1 Alabama (at Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana)
Interesting trek has been taken to this game by both teams. Alabama lost to Ole Miss early in October and followed that up with a 14-13 win in Fayetteville over Arkansas. They had another close call in Baton Rouge, beating LSU 20-13 in overtime. They seemed to take off after the LSU game and got the playoff's number one overall seed. Ohio State's journey began with a season ending injury to Braxton Miller before the season even began and their dreams of being a title contender seemed to go up in smoke with a home loss to a mediocre Virginia Tech team. However, they've rattled off 11 straight wins afterwards, including the 59-0 clobbering of Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game. They did lose J.T. Barrett to a fractured ankle in the win over Michigan, so now they are on their third QB of the season in sophomore Cardale Jones. He wasn't fazed by the conference title game stage, throwing for 257 yards and three TD passes on just 17 attempts. Going against Alabama will be a different type of test, not just for Jones but also the Buckeye defense which was great against the Badgers. They'll have to figure out a way to slow down the top WR in college football in Amari Cooper as well as an always strong rushing attack. It's been a very admirable run for the Buckeyes to even get to the College Football Playoff given all the adversity they have gone through this season; and as an Auburn fan, as much as I'd love to see that admirable run continue with a win in this game, I just have a hard time thinking it'll happen. Ohio State will put forth a very respectable effort and make it a closer game than some expect, but the Tide just seem to have too much firepower on both sides of the ball to come away with the win.
My Call: Alabama 34, Ohio State 27

College Football Championship Game: Oregon vs. Ohio State (at AT&T Stadium in Arlington)

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