Monday, December 29, 2014

Auburn Preview and Prediction (Outback Bowl vs. Wisconsin)

Well... 2014 didn't end up fulfilling the high expectations of the Auburn Tigers community (team and fans), but like every other team in a bowl game that also had higher expectations (and there are a few others), these Tigers have to do their best to finish the season strong and attempt to gain some momentum for the 2015 campaign. The last game of 2014, or maybe I should say the first game of 2015, will come on New Year's Day at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida (home of the NFL's Tampa Bay Buccaneers) against the Wisconsin Badgers of the Big 10 Conference. Both of these teams have felt personnel losses prior to this game and have key players who will or perhaps will be playing in their last collegiate football games. For Wisconsin, they lost head coach Gary Andersen in what was somewhat of a surprise move to me. He decided two years in Madison were enough and agreed to become the new head coach of the Oregon State Beavers, who lost their own head coach in Mike Riley to Nebraska, but may well have inherited an upgrade in Andersen. With that news, former long time Badgers coach and current athletic director Barry Alvarez will coach the team in the bowl game. Auburn had to deal with the loss of defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson due to ineffectiveness. His final swan song came in the Iron Bowl against Alabama where Auburn gave up 55 points in defeat and looked as though they flat out quit towards the end of the game. Both clubs have already hired their replacements. After the bowl game, Paul Chryst will be the new Wisconsin head coach. The Madison, Wisconsin native and former University of Wisconsin grad and player coached for three years at Pittsburgh before this opening, and he decided coming home was too good of an opportunity to pass up. He was also their offensive coordinator from 2005-2011; that included the last year of Barry Alvarez's long time tenure as head coach and all but one year of the Bret Bielema (who now coaches at Arkansas) era. Meantime, Auburn hired Will Muschamp to be their new defensive coordinator. Muschamp was fired by the Florida Gators after four up and down years as their head coach. Like Chryst had time at Wisconsin, Muschamp also has a past history at Auburn. Muschamp was the DBs coach and defensive coordinator at Auburn in 2006 and 2007, so both men will be back in familiar territory. Like Chryst, Muschamp won't be coaching in this game, either. Instead it'll be Charlie Harbison serving as the defensive coordinator on game day.

When dealing with the Wisconsin offense, the first and easier said than done key is to try containing star running back Melvin Gordon, who will be playing in his final college game as he recently declared for the 2015 NFL Draft. In his final season at Wisconsin, Gordon has thus far rushed for an astonishing 2336 yards and 26 touchdowns on 309 carries and has added 151 yards on 17 receptions and three scores through the air. It tells you although he may not catch the ball a ton, he is certainly capable of sneaking out of the backfield and hurting defenses that way as well. With the exception of the Western Illinois and Ohio State games, Gordon has rushed for at least 122 yards and one touchdown in all of Wisconsin's games this season. Yes, Gordon is the main guy and will get the bulk of the work, but Auburn can't forget about Corey Clement, who rushed for 844 yards and 9 touchdowns on 132 carries (added 10 receptions and 1 TD catch as well), so you've got another guy who is fully capable of doing some damage. Led by these two, it's predictable enough that the Badgers would have the fourth ranked rushing attack in the FBS, going for an average of over 300 yards per game. They've needed all of that with a less than stellar passing game, which ranks 118th in FBS in terms of yards per game at just over 150. Neither Joel Stave nor Tanner McEvoy have been very effective as passers, throwing for under 2000 yards and the same number of interceptions as touchdowns (13). McEvoy has been quite effective as a runner though, as he's ran for 574 yards and six touchdowns on the season. Speaking of McEvoy, he may see work on both sides of the ball in this game as he's been practicing on the first team defense at linebacker and safety, two positions he played while at Arizona Western College.. although he's spent all of 2014 at QB after spending 2013 on the defensive side of the ball.

Wisconsin makes it very tough on opposing offenses. They are 17th in the FBS in rush yards allowed per game and fifth in passing yards allowed per game in the FBS. 11 fumble recoveries and 36 sacks on opposing QB are two more solid totals. The only thing the Badgers defense doesn't really do much is pick off too many passes; they have just six on the season. Obviously with 36 sacks, this team is very good at tackles for loss in the backfield. With two seniors, a junior and a redshirt sophomore, this is a very experienced group of linebackers. True senior Derek Landisch is the best of the bunch production wise; as he has recorded 9 sacks and 16 tackles for loss. Vince Biegel isn't too far behind with 7.5 sacks and 15.5 TFL. Safety Michael Caputo is the leading tackler on the team with 99 in total. I guess if you want any "good" news to consider, it's that none of these guys are what I'd consider individually dominant (at least not going by stats, but I haven't watched too much of Wisconsin this year, so maybe one or two of these guys has more of an impact than the stats may show), although that leads you to know this is an outstanding unit as a whole. As far as the season went, the Badgers began the season with a loss to SEC foe LSU before following that up with relatively easy home wins over Western Illinois, Bowling Green and South Florida. They then lost on the road to Northwestern to open up the Big 10 slate before running off seven straight conference wins over Illinois, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota before being run off the field by Ohio State 59-0 in the conference title game.

All in all, I think we've got a nice little matchup that should see a lot of back and forth. I think this Wisconsin defense will be able to go toe-to-toe with this Auburn offense, it should be interesting to see if Auburn's 12th ranked rushing attack can make it work against this stout run defense. Star running back Melvin Gordon will likely find some room to roam against an Auburn run defense that wasn't as good later in the season as it was earlier in the season. But one thing the Tigers should do is stack the box and force whoever the Badgers QB will be to beat them with his arm. I'm gonna take Auburn by a field goal. I have a lot of respect for this Wisconsin team, especially for Gordon and their stout all-around defense, but the Auburn offense has more proven ways to be successful than the Badgers, who will basically sink or swim (very likely swim) with Gordon. Auburn's defense ought to be able to do just enough to help the Tigers get out of Tampa with a win.

My Call: Auburn 27, Wisconsin 24

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